India Considering Lowering Personal Tax Rates to Boost Consumption

The Indian government is contemplating lowering personal tax rates for certain categories of individuals in the upcoming Budget 2024, potentially boosting consumption in Asia’s third-largest economy. This plan might be announced in July when Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government presents its first federal budget after the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) failed to secure a majority on its own.

A post-poll survey revealed voter concerns about inflation, unemployment, and declining incomes. Despite the Indian economy growing at an impressive 8.2% in 2023-24, consumption only grew at half that rate.

Prime Minister Modi, while claiming to form the National Democratic Alliance government, emphasized focusing on raising middle-class savings and improving their quality of life. A reduction in personal tax could enhance consumption and increase middle-class savings, according to sources, who spoke anonymously due to the confidentiality of budget discussions.

The finance ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The tax relief may target individuals earning over Rs 15 lakh annually, with specifics yet to be determined. The changes might affect a tax scheme introduced in 2020, where income up to Rs 15 lakh is taxed at 5%-20%, and earnings over Rs 15 lakh are taxed at 30%. The government may also consider lowering rates for annual incomes of Rs 10 lakh and discussing a new threshold for the highest tax rate of 30%.

Any loss of tax revenue from these cuts could be partially offset by increased consumption among higher income earners. The federal government aims for a fiscal deficit of 5.1% of GDP by March 2025. Strong tax collections and a substantial dividend from the central bank will provide the government flexibility in planning the new budget.