economic growth

India’s major cities could face the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs over the next few decades as extreme heat increasingly makes outdoor work unsafe, according to a new World Bank report. The findings highlight the growing economic impact of climate change on employment, productivity, and urban development. The report estimates that New Delhi could lose the equivalent of 266,000 full-time jobs by 2030, with the figure rising to 418,000 by 2050 due to unsafe working conditions caused by extreme heat. Kolkata is projected to lose 360,000 jobs by 2030 and 391,000 by 2050, while Mumbai could see losses increase from 204,000 to 255,000 during the same period. Chennai is expected to lose 141,000 jobs by 2030, rising slightly to 145,000 by 2050. South Asia Faces Growing Economic Risks Across South Asia, extreme heat is already responsible for the loss of an estimated 31 million full-time jobs annually. The World Bank warns that without stronger climate adaptation measures, the region’s economy could shrink by nearly 7% by 2050. With an additional 280 million people expected to join the working-age population by mid-century, rising temperatures pose a serious challenge to employment and long-term economic growth. Johannes Zutt, the World Bank’s Vice President for South Asia, said the region’s cities are vital to future economic progress, but increasing temperatures threaten jobs, livelihoods, and overall productivity. Heat Impact Extends Beyond Workplaces The report also highlights how rising temperatures could disrupt transportation and daily life. Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi is among the few major airports worldwide projected to experience temperatures close to or above 50°C for several days each year by 2030, potentially forcing airlines to reduce passenger or cargo loads. In Delhi, around 38% of Metro commuters’ travel time is spent walking, exposing millions to dangerous heat levels. Other cities are also expected to see worsening conditions. Patna’s share of annual working hours deemed unsafe due to heat could increase from 2.4% in 2030 to 6.3% by 2080, while Jaipur’s losses are projected to rise from 1.5% to 2.9% over the same period. Heat Deaths May Be Underreported According to the World Bank, the official death toll linked to extreme heat is likely underestimated because fatalities are often recorded as resulting from heart or kidney failure rather than heat exposure. The report cites research suggesting that a single five-day heatwave in India may have contributed to approximately 30,000 excess deaths. Sustainable Cooling Presents a Major Opportunity Despite the risks, the report points to significant economic opportunities in climate adaptation. India’s sustainable cooling market could reach $1.6 trillion by 2040, driven by growing demand for energy-efficient cooling systems, green buildings, and climate-resilient infrastructure. The World Bank also found that investments in heat early warning systems offer substantial returns, generating an estimated $50 in benefits for every $1 invested, making them one of the most cost-effective climate resilience measures for Indian cities. Source: Economic Times