-By
January 23, 2025
A groundbreaking study titled “Dengue Dynamics, Predictions, and Future Increase under Changing Monsoon Climate in India” projects a 13% rise in dengue-related mortality in Pune by 2040. Conducted by scientists from IITM, Savitribai Phule Pune University, and international collaborators, the study was published in Scientific Reports on January 21.
Highlighting the interplay between climate and dengue, the researchers warned that rising temperatures and erratic monsoon patterns could escalate dengue deaths by 25-40% by mid-century (2040–2060). Pune, a known dengue hotspot, is particularly vulnerable due to increasing average temperatures, uneven rainfall distribution, and higher humidity levels.
The study revealed that temperatures above 27°C, moderate and evenly distributed rainfall, and humidity levels between 60% and 78% during monsoon significantly drive dengue transmission. Conversely, extreme rainfall exceeding 150 mm in a week can reduce mosquito prevalence by flushing out larvae and eggs.
Under fossil fuel emission scenarios, Pune’s temperature is predicted to rise by 1.2–3.5°C by 2100, amplifying conditions favorable to dengue outbreaks. However, researchers emphasize that socio-economic factors, not included in the projections, could also influence future trends.
Lead scientist Dr. Roxy Koll from IITM stressed the need for early warning systems based on health and climate data. Using AI/ML models, the team developed a system capable of predicting dengue outbreaks over two months in advance. “Cooperation from health departments is critical for saving lives,” Dr. Koll said.
The findings underscore the urgency for region-specific interventions and better health data integration to combat climate-sensitive diseases. Policymakers in high-burden states can utilize this study to allocate resources effectively and mitigate the public health impact of climate change.